CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis
18.05.2020
Ethnic Echoes
In the midst of the pandemic and economic slump, Europe faces growing ethnic and regional divisions. As societies become increasingly frustrated and impoverished, in-group self-defense and out-group aggression is escalating. Such conflicts can assume several forms, from anti-immigrant xenophobia and minority scapegoating to inter-regional and inter-state disputes...
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis
04.05.2020
Balkan Grit
The Pandemic Has Hit South-Eastern Europe Hard but Opportunities Beckon. In poor regions like the Balkans, the economic impact of the pandemic will be far-reaching and acutely test social resilience. However, it will also provide opportunities for self-reliance and resourcefulness that could benefit Europe more widely. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) calculate that the economic contraction in the Balkans will range between 3% and 10%...
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis
10.04.2020
Mind the Gap
It is too early to forecast the long-term impact of the pandemic on Atlanticism but not too soon to pose some pertinent questions.
And Don’t Succumb to Transatlantic Fever. It is too early to forecast the long-term impact of the pandemic on Atlanticism but not too soon to pose some pertinent questions. Amid havoc and uncertainty it may seem rational to predict the collapse of existing international arrangements...
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis
30.03.2020
A Plague on All Their Houses
Balkan Politicians Are Exploiting the Pandemic for Political Purposes. The coronavirus spares nobody, but poorer regions with inadequate healthcare systems and deficient emergency planning will be most affected in the long term. That makes the Balkans look particularly vulnerable. Though by the end of March only 6,000 infections and over 120 virus-related deaths have been recorded in South Eastern Europe, the pandemic is projected to accelerate...
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis
04.03.2020
Vulnerable Europe. Europe Braces for New Refugee and Pandemic Crises
While the number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases continues to grow, a new wave of Middle Eastern refugees could spill over Europe’s southern borders. And the two threats can merge in public perceptions, thus amplifying radical rightist voices and opening new opportunities for the Kremlin’s disinformation and destabilization operations.
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Opinion
20.02.2020
Beware Another Russia Rese
Kremlin Proposals May Look Appealing but They Raise Russia’s Influence at Our Expense. With U.S. presidential elections fast approaching, the specter of another attempted “reset” with Putinist Russia looms over Washington. Regardless of who takes the reigns in the White House next January, there is a danger that in the hope of rebuilding relations with Moscow the administration will accommodate Russia’s European ambitions and undercut America’s security interests...
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis
28.01.2020
The Balkan Great Game
The Great Game, a prolonged 19th century confrontation between the British and Russian empires in Central Asia, is often invoked as a prime example of the struggle for influence between major powers. But another Great Game was played out at that time in the Balkans between Russia and several European powers when the Ottoman empire began to retreat...
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis
14.01.2020
Subverting NATO From Within
Unable to Prevent NATO Enlargement, Moscow Is Intensifying Its Campaign to Subvert Alliance Members From Within. President Vladimir Putin views NATO as the main threat to Russia’s expansionism and has calculated that infiltration and disinformation are a cheaper and more effective means to undermine Western unity than a military confrontation that would expose Russia’s weaknesses...
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis
06.01.2020
Is Bosnia a Time Bomb?
French President Emmanuel Macron has described Bosnia-Herzegovina as a “ticking time-bomb” and a grave concern for Europe because of jihadists returning from Syria. He is tapping into the anti-Bosniak stereotypes propounded by former Serbian leader Slobodan Milošević during the wars in the 1990s...
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis
12.12.2019
Moscow’s Salami Tactics
Well before the term “hybrid war” was coined, the Kremlin pursued a strategy of subverting and seizing the territories of former satellites. Moscow’s approach to its neighbors is an international variant of the “salami tactics” applied by communist regimes to divide and eliminate domestic political opposition...
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis, Opinion
26.11.2019
NATO’s East Flank Conflict Scenarios
At NATO’s London Summit on 3-4 December 2019, Alliance leaders will refocus their attention on the Black Sea. This will provide a valuable opportunity to assess the dangers facing the Alliance’s most vulnerable flank between the Black and Baltic Seas, particularly from conflicts promoted by Moscow...
CEPA
The Center for European Policy Analysis
Analysis
07.11.2019
Ukraine’s Historic Centrality
Ukraine’s centrality in Washington’s impeachment probe is overshadowed by the country’s historical and political centrality in Europe. With Russia defining itself as “Eurasian,” Ukraine is the biggest country in Europe, spanning several sub-regions, with the second-longest Black Sea coastline, and bordering six European states. It is also battling with a revisionist Moscow not only over its territorial integrity and international alliances but also over Ukrainian identity and history...